I started off with a generic 58 which when I got my calipers out was actually about 57.4mm. It was a right pain, being too loose meant it didn't seal the edges properly and you had to tamp around (even if only by 1mm). I bought a Knock 58.35 flat which was much better.
I had a moment of weakness and got a 58.4 convex Torr Goldfinger off coffeechap. In all honesty I don't notice much difference in extractions between the 2. The flat one feels quite 'positive' and is easier to tamp level. The Torr is heavier, fits the basket even better and feels great in the hand. The idea of convex is supposedly that it helps build up the sides of the puck to give a better seal, and is alleged to somehow aid a more even compaction due to forcing the grounds out towards the edges. However someone did sine research and reckons they've proved that flat tampers give higher EY. (Unless I misunderstood).
I don't necessarily subscribe to these theories, so I would agree with Glenn and the others who say that it's mostly about diameter, then weight, then preference as to base profile. I was really just curious about trying a convex.
One thing to watch is where the top of the base comes in relation to the top of the basket - or rather, can you easily use your fingertips to gauge whether it's level. The Torr is very comfortable in that respect due to the shape. The MBK also works well but with less 'sexiness'. In short, if you can get a well made tamper with solid construction that fits well, it needn't cost a fortune and will definitely help your shots. After that, it's maybe bling... My Knock was all I 'needed' but the Torr is just pure indulgence and is the one I reach for most often. I get equally good results from each though.